We Tracked 5,014 Solana Tokens for 24 Hours. 1 in 8 Died.

By the MemeAssist Research Desk · Published 2026-08-24 · Updated 2026-08-24 · 8 min read

We tracked 5,014 Solana tokens for 24 hours after our engine analyzed them (Jul 22 – Aug 24, 2026). 11.8% were dead within a day. Survival was almost entirely a function of size: 48.9% of sub-$100k tokens died versus ~4% above $1M. Even the survivors bled — the median 24-hour return was −2.7%, and losing half your money (7.2% of survivors) was five times more common than doubling it (1.4%).

Why we ran the largest survival study we've published

Every memecoin trader has an instinct for how dangerous this market is. Almost nobody has a measured number. MemeAssist automatically re-checks every token its screening engine analyzes at 1, 6, 12 and 24 hours and writes the outcome — up, down, or gone — to a database before anyone knows the result. This study reads a full month of those records: 5,014 tokens analyzed and resolved between July 22 and August 24, 2026 — more than three times the cohort of our first outcomes study.

Nothing is back-fitted and nothing is cherry-picked. The analysis happened first, in public; the outcome arrived on its own 24 hours later, including the outcomes that make the market look terrible.

The headline: 1 in 8 tokens didn't survive the day

Of 5,014 resolved outcomes, 592 tokens (11.8%) were dead within 24 hours — the market stopped quoting them entirely: rugged, drained, or delisted from every pool we track. That is not "went down a lot". That is gone.

The single strongest predictor of death was not hype, narrative, or even our own risk flags. It was size:

Market cap at analysis	Tokens	Dead within 24h	Median 24h return (survivors)
Under $100k	622	48.9%	−20.3%
$100k – $1M	1,001	11.8%	−9.5%
$1M – $10M	2,063	3.5%	−3.0%
Above $10M	1,288	4.4%	−0.6%

Read the first row again. A token analyzed below $100k market cap was closer to a coin flip on existing at all 24 hours later — and the half that survived still bled a median −20.3%. This is the quantified version of a rule every survivor of this market eventually learns: in the sub-$100k tier, the default outcome is not "small loss", it's extinction.

Surviving isn't winning: what the living tokens did

Strip out the deaths and look only at the 4,422 tokens that still had a market after 24 hours:

The median survivor returned −2.7% — slow bleed is the market's resting state.
Only 39.7% finished up at all.
317 tokens (7.2%) lost more than half their value while surviving — the market kept quoting them all the way down.
134 (3.0%) gained 50%+, and just 60 (1.4%) doubled.

Put the two tails side by side: a halving was five times more common than a doubling. Every position-sizing decision in this market should be made with that ratio in mind — a theme we keep returning to in what are the chances a memecoin rugs?

What this means if you trade fresh launches

The market-cap table is not an argument to never touch small tokens — the rare 10× lives down there too. It is an argument to treat the tiers as different games:

Under $100k: you are betting on survival first and price second. Whatever your entry thesis, roughly half of these tokens will not exist tomorrow. Size like it.
$100k–$1M: death risk drops to ~1 in 8, but this tier had the worst survivor bleed (median −9.5%) — it's where hype cools off.
Above $1M: outright death becomes rare (~4%), and the game becomes timing and structure — holder concentration and liquidity matter more than existence risk.

Methodology

Cohort: every token analyzed by the MemeAssist screening engine whose 24-hour outcome resolved between July 22 and August 24, 2026, with a definitive result — either a captured 24-hour price (n = 4,422) or a confirmed dead market (n = 592), for 5,014 resolved outcomes. A further 1,657 checks ended with no usable price data and no death confirmation; those are excluded from every figure rather than assumed dead, which means our death rates are, if anything, understated. Death rates count dead tokens against all resolved outcomes; return medians and percentages are computed among survivors only, and we disclose that treatment because it materially flatters the averages — a −100% is worse than any bleed. Market-cap bands use the market cap recorded at analysis time, not after the move. See how the engine analyzes tokens for what happens at analysis time.

Check any token before it becomes a statistic

Every token in this study got the same treatment you can run right now: paste a Solana mint address into MemeAssist and get an Overall Health Score, a Rug Risk Rating, an AI Verdict in plain English, and a Detailed Risk Breakdown — and your token joins the same outcome tracker that produced this study.

Frequently asked questions

What percentage of Solana memecoins die within 24 hours?

In our July 22 – August 24, 2026 cohort of 5,014 tracked tokens, 11.8% were dead within 24 hours of analysis — no longer quotable in any pool we track. The rate was heavily size-dependent: 48.9% under $100k market cap, 11.8% at $100k–$1M, and roughly 4% above $1M.

What does the average Solana memecoin do in 24 hours?

Among tokens that survived the day, the median return was −2.7% and only 39.7% finished up. Losing half your value (7.2% of survivors) was five times more common than doubling (1.4%). Slow bleed is the default; big wins are rare outliers.

Are small-cap Solana tokens really riskier than large caps?

Dramatically. Tokens analyzed under $100k market cap died within 24 hours at a 48.9% rate versus about 4% for tokens above $1M — a 12× difference — and the small-cap survivors still bled a median −20.3% on top of that.

How were these outcomes measured?

Every token our engine analyzes is automatically re-checked 1, 6, 12 and 24 hours later, and the result is written to a database before anyone knows the outcome. Death rates and returns are reported separately: a token counts as dead when its market stops quoting entirely, and return medians are computed among survivors, which we disclose because it makes the averages look better than the full truth.